Time to sweat an under. Noah Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020. Prior to the surgery, he was a monster strikeout pitcher. Since his return, he has struggled to miss bats. He has 27 K in 40.1 innings. He is coming off a 0 K dismantling by the Yankees, and he gets a brutal matchup at home vs the Red Sox tonight. The hitting conditions will be great, and so are many of the Red Sox hitters.
As I mentioned, Noah just doesn’t miss bats like he once did. He currently sits in the 8th percentile with .67 K per inning, 15th percentile in K%, 36th percentile in whiff%, and 46th percentile in chase rate. His 4 seamer and sinkler, once both 98 mph pitches, now sit at 94. His career 25.8% K rate is very far off the current 15.9% he has this season.
Boston offense has been elite over the last 30 days. They are second in runs, 7th in homers, 1st in batting average, and 1st in OPS. They are 5th in the league in runs during away games, despite playing less games than any other team in the top 10. They are also bottom 10 in strikeouts this year. For the season, they have a 21.0% K rate vs right handers. On a beautiful night in Anaheim, I like this Boston offense to have a good night and chase Noah out with less than 5 K.