@RyanPropz Padres @ Cardinals K Prop Pick - 5/31

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Ryan Dolan | @ryanpropz

San Diego Padres (30-18) @ St Louis Cardinals (27-21)

We played Blake Snell 7+ K in his last start and he came through for us for a +142 cash. So today…I’m playing his under. If you saw my last article you saw me harp on the fact of it being a home game and that was a key behind my confidence in the play. Well on the flip side, this one being away is a huge factor. Snell historically struggles badly on the road. In his lone road start this season, he went 3.2 innings allowing 3 hits, 3 walks, and 3 earned runs vs the Phillies. Last season he had a 6.12 ERA on the road in 15 starts. He has big control issues that really show in his road appearances as he walked 42 in 60.2 innings last season. I expect more of the same vs a disciplined Cardinals offense.

The Cards have the 2nd best batting average at .283, the best OPS at .827, and the least amount of K against south paws. They are 4th in the league in chase contact, a key stat against a guy with nasty out of the zone stuff like Snell. They don’t swing at the first pitch often which could play a part in this one considering Blake’s control issues. They also see the 6th most pitches per plate appearance at 4.07, another key factor vs a pitcher like Snell who labors through games trying to throw strikes. This one could get really sweaty. Blake is super talented, but the Cards are a nightmare matchup for him and I like him to go under on strikeouts tonight.

Ryan's K Pick



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