@FastMoneyLabs’ +107 NHL SGP - 5/18

WE ABSOLUTELY TORCHED FANDUEL YESTERDAY. IT WAS GLORIOUS.

Let’s run it back. Here’s my best Shots on Goal (SOG) combo for NYR/CAR Game 1.

The Rangers snuck past Pittsburgh, but it wasn’t pretty. They allowed 39.5 shots per 60 minutes (3rd most of playoff teams) and 4.27 expected goals per 60 minutes (most).

Those Shots on Goal numbers have me licking my chops for tonight’s game vs. Carolina, a team that got 35+ SOG vs. NYR in 3 of 4 regular season matchups.

Of the options on Carolina, the data suggests we should target a Forward. NYR allowed tons of shots to PIT, but only 21.4% came from Defensemen (4th fewest of playoff teams) in Round 1. This was consistent with their regular season results, which show they allowed the 3rd fewest shots to Defensemen out of 32 teams in NHL.

Within the Forward group, the data suggests we can pick our poison, as the shots on goal by position were somewhat balanced. Centers accounted for roughly 46% of shots NYR allowed to Forwards, and Wingers 54%.

Based on all that information, my best choice for Leg 1 is rookie Winger Seth Jarvis, who plays on Carolina’s 1st Line and 1st Power Play unit.

• Jarvis finished with 2+ SOG in 5 of 7 games last series.
• In Carolina’s Round 1 home games, this bet was 3-1.
• He’s been hitting this, but I also like that he’s attempting more shots in the playoffs.
• He averaged 5.4 attempts per game last series, up +2.2 vs. his full season average. Those extra attempts are nice because they buy cushion for missed and blocked shots.
• Looking at regular season numbers, I noticed that betting Seth Jarvis 2+ shots is 4-0 in games vs. NYR this year.

The risk to this bet relates to his opponent (New York) being a more disciplined team than his last opponent (Boston). NYR might take less penalties, which would result in less Power Play time and fewer chances to get his SOG. But at a line this low, it’s a risk I’m willing to take. Especially for a guy that plays 1st line in 5v5 and has a name as cool as Seth Jarvis. Say less, right? I’m backing him with confidence for Leg 1.

Riding the hot hand here with Mika as Leg 2.

I didn’t target him much this year because he wasn’t consistent. Some games he’d get 4. Then the next game, he’d get 0. Not fun and very frustrating.

But looking at playoff performance, something has clearly changed. At least with respect to his shot attempts. He attempted 4+ shots in all 7 games vs. Boston, and 5+ in Games 2-7. With the series on the line in Games 6-7, he attempted 7 shots in both, landing 6 SOG in Game 6 and 4 SOG in Game 7.

I like Mika’s chances to cover his standard 2.5 line tonight at a reasonable price (-125) but to be safe, I prefer to buy down 1 using FanDuel’s new Alt Lines feature. It makes the bet more expensive, but I think it will be worth it. 

Last series, for example, there were 3 games where he attempted 5+ shots but only 2 hit the net. As a result, Mika’s 3+ shot prop lost on the hook 3 times in Round 1, whereas 2+ shots was a perfect 7-0.

These new Alt Lines feel like the best thing since Sliced Bread. Let’s feast.

I got +121 odds for this 2-Legger at FanDuel and sized my bet to win a unit (risk 0.83). As safe as this bet sounds, please wager responsibly and good luck!