FastMoneyLabs has found something the books have missed for the 2023 NHL Draft - check it out below!
@FastMoneyLabs' 2023 NHL Draft Lottery Pick
$FML's NHL Draft Lottery Pick
Did you know that betting odds are really just probabilities?
- +100 = 50% probability
- -110 = 52.4% probability
- -120 = 54.5% probability
That’s 101 level stuff. The real challenge is estimating probability. That’s the hard part.
Luckily for us — there’s an upcoming event that completely eliminates guesswork. The probabilities are known in advance!
The event, of course, is the NHL Draft Lottery. All non-playoff teams have a chance at the #1 overall pick, and their odds are known in advance based on standings position:
Probability of 1st overall pick:
- Ducks: 25.5%
- Blue Jackets: 13.5%
- Blackhawks: 11.5%
- Sharks: 9.5%
- Canadiens: 8.5%
Again, this is 101 level stuff to most. Apparently not to Draftkings. They messed up this pricing so bad, I had to write about it.
Assuming a fair lottery draw (i.e. no collusion or cheating), the Anaheim Ducks have a 25.5% chance to pick 1st, and…
- 25.5% probability = +292 fair odds
- Draftkings odds? +340
- +340 odds imply 22.7% probability
- And 25.5% actual probability - 22.7% betting probability = +2.8% guaranteed edge
To be clear, I’m NOT guaranteeing they’ll win the lottery. However, I AM guaranteeing this is a smart bet based on the laws of pricing. The Ducks should NOT be +340 to win the draft lottery. They should be +292. This isn’t up for debate. It’s a cold hard fact, and I’m wagering accordingly! (Risk 0.5U)
The Pick: Ducks to Win Draft Lottery (+340)
Capper Penguin's MLB Play of the Day: Cardinals @ Pirates - 6/2
Pittsburgh HAS NOT been striking out early in their games and the only guy that has covered this line recently was Luis Castillo 5 games ago. Besides him, starters haven't hit this......