@FastMoneyLabs' 2023 NHL Draft Lottery Pick

FastMoneyLabs has found something the books have missed for the 2023 NHL Draft - check it out below!

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$FML's NHL Draft Lottery Pick

Did you know that betting odds are really just probabilities?

  • +100 = 50% probability
  • -110 = 52.4% probability
  • -120 = 54.5% probability
  • Etc.

That’s 101 level stuff. The real challenge is estimating probability. That’s the hard part.

Luckily for us — there’s an upcoming event that completely eliminates guesswork. The probabilities are known in advance!

The event, of course, is the NHL Draft Lottery. All non-playoff teams have a chance at the #1 overall pick, and their odds are known in advance based on standings position:

Probability of 1st overall pick:

  • Ducks: 25.5%
  • Blue Jackets: 13.5%
  • Blackhawks: 11.5%
  • Sharks: 9.5%
  • Canadiens: 8.5%
  • Etc.

Again, this is 101 level stuff to most. Apparently not to Draftkings. They messed up this pricing so bad, I had to write about it.

Assuming a fair lottery draw (i.e. no collusion or cheating), the Anaheim Ducks have a 25.5% chance to pick 1st, and…

  • 25.5% probability = +292 fair odds
  • Draftkings odds? +340
  • +340 odds imply 22.7% probability
  • And 25.5% actual probability - 22.7% betting probability = +2.8% guaranteed edge

To be clear, I’m NOT guaranteeing they’ll win the lottery. However, I AM guaranteeing this is a smart bet based on the laws of pricing. The Ducks should NOT be +340 to win the draft lottery. They should be +292. This isn’t up for debate. It’s a cold hard fact, and I’m wagering accordingly! (Risk 0.5U)

The Pick: Ducks to Win Draft Lottery (+340)

2023 nhl draft pick
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