@FastMoneyLabs' 2023 NHL Draft Lottery Pick

Did you know that betting odds are really just probabilities?
Examples:

• +100 = 50% probability
• -110 = 52.4% probability
• -120 = 54.5% probability
• Etc.

That’s 101 level stuff. The real challenge is estimating probability. That’s the hard part.

Luckily for us — there’s an upcoming event that completely eliminates guesswork. The probabilities are known in advance!

The event, of course, is the NHL Draft Lottery. All non-playoff teams have a chance at the #1 overall pick, and their odds are known in advance based on standings position:

Probability of 1st overall pick:

• Ducks: 25.5%
• Blue Jackets: 13.5%
• Blackhawks: 11.5%
• Sharks: 9.5%
• Canadiens: 8.5%
• Etc.

Again, this is 101 level stuff to most. Apparently not to Draftkings. They messed up this pricing so bad, I had to write about it.

Assuming a fair lottery draw (i.e. no collusion or cheating), the Anaheim Ducks have a 25.5% chance to pick 1st, and…

• 25.5% probability = +292 fair odds
• Draftkings odds? +340
• +340 odds imply 22.7% probability
• And 25.5% actual probability - 22.7% betting probability = +2.8% guaranteed edge

To be clear, I’m NOT guaranteeing they’ll win the lottery. However, I AM guaranteeing this is a smart bet based on the laws of pricing. The Ducks should NOT be +340 to win the draft lottery. They should be +292. This isn’t up for debate. It’s a cold hard fact, and I’m wagering accordingly! (Risk 0.5U)

The Pick: Ducks to Win Draft Lottery (+340)