Did you know that betting odds are really just probabilities?
That’s 101 level stuff. The real challenge is estimating probability. That’s the hard part.
Luckily for us — there’s an upcoming event that completely eliminates guesswork. The probabilities are known in advance!
The event, of course, is the NHL Draft Lottery. All non-playoff teams have a chance at the #1 overall pick, and their odds are known in advance based on standings position:
Probability of 1st overall pick:
Again, this is 101 level stuff to most. Apparently not to Draftkings. They messed up this pricing so bad, I had to write about it.
Assuming a fair lottery draw (i.e. no collusion or cheating), the Anaheim Ducks have a 25.5% chance to pick 1st, and…
To be clear, I’m NOT guaranteeing they’ll win the lottery. However, I AM guaranteeing this is a smart bet based on the laws of pricing. The Ducks should NOT be +340 to win the draft lottery. They should be +292. This isn’t up for debate. It’s a cold hard fact, and I’m wagering accordingly! (Risk 0.5U)
The Pick: Ducks to Win Draft Lottery (+340)
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