It’s a beautiful day for hockey! With 9 games to choose from, I feel there’s enough value on the board to justify a high-confidence, 3-leg parlay. In the following sections, I’ll highlight my top 3 spots for a parlay paying almost 3.5-to-1 at Caesars Sportsbook (odds subject to change).
Note: At the bottom of each section, I list alternate betting angles for folks who can’t bet Shots on Goal props (for example, in the New York market).
7PM: Philadelphia Flyers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
If you haven’t heard by now, all eyes are on the Pittsburgh captain tonight. He’s sitting at 499 career goals – 1 short of the elite 500 goal scorer club. Will he get there tonight? If you believe in career vs. opponent splits, this is a prime matchup for Sid the Kid to get it done:
While it was tempting to back his Anytime Goal Scorer prop, I opted to be safe by choosing Shots on Goal for this Parlay. To score #500, he obviously needs to put shots on net. In his last 4 games chasing this milestone, Crosby’s finished with at least 4+ shots each time. Tonight, we only need 3.
As a bonus – I like that tonight is a home game. After a short road trip, Sid should be extra motivated to notch #500 in his home building.
If your state doesn’t offer Shots on Goal props, I like Crosby o1.5 Points (+140) as a pivot. It cashed in 3 straight home games and 6 of his last 10 games overall. You could bet that as a single to be safe, but I like it for the parlay too.
Now, onto Leg 2...
7PM: New York Islanders @ Buffalo Sabres
After playing 5 of their last 6 games on the road, Buffalo returns home to battle the New York Islanders – a team coming off 2 straight road losses in Canada.
Buffalo is coming off a win but lost 4 of their last 6 games. The team as a whole is struggling, but their 1st line is shining. Since joining Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner on the 1st line, Tuch & Co. managed to outshoot their opponents (in 5v5 play) in 9 of 10 games. That’s impressive.
Outshooting opponents indicates they’re controlling play more often than not in 5v5 situations. While 10 games is a small sample, I see a healthy degree of consistency in the trend. My gut tells me it’s sustainable.
I could see a case for backing all 3 linemates’ Shots on Goal props. They’ve all been hitting it. For tonight, of the three choices (i.e., Tuch, Thompson, Skinner), I chose Tuch because I value consistency, and he’s been delivering it. While he got off to a slower start (Under 2.5 Shots in 6 of his first 9 games with Buffalo) – in his last 6 games, he’s finished with no less than 4 shots (+1.5 vs. line) each time. In 4 of those 6 games, he finished with 5+ shots. And in 2 of the 6, he finished with 7+. Tonight, we only need 3.
On paper, the Islanders aren’t the best matchup (28.31 shots allowed per game since Christmas break, 5th fewest). However, if we exclude their home games, they’ve allowed 34 shots per game on the road since Christmas (9th most). In one prior matchup (12/30 in New York), Tuch got 3 shots on net, which makes me comfortable with the matchup.
If you can’t bet Shots on Goal props, I also like Tuch to record a point (-140 at the same price as the Shots on Goal prop. Since joining Buffalo on 12/29, he’s recorded a point in 5/5 home games and 11/15 (73%) overall.
And now the third and final leg...
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7PM: St. Louis Blues @ Ottawa Senators
Targeting a matchup with relatively high game total (6.5 at time of writing) and player who poses the greatest threat as the most consistent contributor on the favored team (St. Louis).
Tarasenko has now recorded at least 1 point in 12 of his last 14 games. This line is priced as if it’s a fluke, but it is not. This guy is notorious for racking up points.
He’s yet to face Ottawa this year but since 2016, this prop cashed in 7 of their last 8 matchups.
I’m not saying this prop is a “lock.” Any bet can theoretically lose. I do think it is grossly mispriced, though. I have no clue how or why this is still being offered at -160, hence why I included it as Leg 3.
Given I see value in each individual leg, I feel the parlay is justified. We’re combining 3 positive expected value bets into one beautiful concoction at +342 odds via Caesars Sportsbook (odds subject to change).
As a reminder, parlaying picks carries an extra element of risk, so please bet responsibly!
Thanks for reading my column today and best of luck if you decide to ride with me!
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