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@FastMoneyLabs’ +620 Friday Night Parlay - 5/20


Leg 1: Seth Jarvis (CAR) Over 0.5 Assists (+200) vs. NYR

Let me start by emphasizing there are safer ways to play this – for example:

  • Use his 0.5 Points (-104) prop, which could cash with a goal or assist, or:
  • 2+ Shots on Goal (-215) prop

If we weren’t on a heater – I’d opt to use one of those as Leg 1. The fact of the matter, though, is we are on a massive heater. The likes of which we have not seen since the early days of May. Therefore, it only feels right that we go bold with a +200 bet on the man, myth & legend –that is Seth Jarvis– to record an assist. On Wednesday night, we backed Seth Jarvis’ shots on goal (SOG) prop for a FlashPicks parlay. It cashed quick and easy, and if you watched the game, chances are you were impressed by the little guy’s speed, grit and determination to generate scoring chances. The Hurricanes only scored twice that night, and our man Seth Jarvis assisted one of them. It was clutch, and the man did it in style:

Looking back to regular season, Jarvis now has assists in 3 straight matchups vs. NYR. The last 2 regular season matchups occurred in April, which makes the trend more relevant to this series than it otherwise would be.

Looking at full year results, you’ll see this prop had a measly 30% hit rate on the season. That stat is misleading though, since Jarvis is a rookie that started on Carolina’s 4th line with limited ice time. As the season progressed, he worked his way up and earned a more prominent role on the Canes’ explosive 1st line and 1st power play unit.

In the 30 games since then, Jarvis’ assist prop hit rate rose to 40%, reflecting the benefits of: (1) increased ice time, and (2) playing alongside more talented goal scorers, namely Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov.

To trust a 40% hit rate prop in a parlay isn’t always a good strategy. In fact, some might say it’s bad. Very bad. But from a pure value perspective I feel it’s OK, because fair odds for a 40% hit rate bet are closer to +150. At +200 odds, we’re getting roughly ~7% of expected value based on my estimates, which makes this a sensible bet to back for Leg 1.

If you’re risk averse and prefer safety, I suggest backing his Points prop instead (which cashes with a goal or assist), or his 2+ shots prop (-215 at FanDuel).

Leg 2: Johnny Gaudreau (CGY) & Connor McDavid Both Over 0.5 Assists (+140)

This bet is available on FanDuel under ‘Player Performance Parlays’ on the Popular tab.

The Battle of Alberta kicked off with an explosive bang: 14 combined goals in just 60 minutes. It was glorious for the fans and prop bettors alike.

For Game 2, Odds Makers are hanging the game total at 6.5 (-110). That number feels ripe for the picking, which led me to back the Over on it as a single bet.

If we’re right that tonight’s game will feature 7+ goals, then I like each team’s superstar’s chances to record an assist as a parlay for Leg 1:

  • Johnny Gaudreau has 8 assists in his last 2 games vs. Edmonton… ALONE. Including the earlier season matchups, Gaudreau averaged 2 assists per game in the Battle of Alberta this year. Betting Johnny Hockey to record at least 1 assist vs. EDM is 4-1 in 2021-22 (regular season + playoffs) and 3-0 in the games played in Calgary. He enters tonight ranked 2nd in the league in Assists for the 2022 Playoffs
  • Connor McDavid. That’s the write up. If you’re not convinced yet, watch this:

My back hurts just watching that video. I’m sure McDavid’s does, too, because the dude is 100% carrying his team right now.

This parlay cashed in the 1st period of Game 1. That doesn’t guarantee it’ll cash again tonight, but the point is: I like it’s chances at +140.

It would take significant restraint – the likes of which I do not have – to ignore this Player Performance Parlay at this price for Leg 2.

I got +620 Odds for this Parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half normal bet size) on it to win 3.1. Parlaying bets carries an extra element of risk, so please bet responsibly and best of luck!

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