If you follow me on Twitter, you might be familiar with this Power Play prop. It cashed in the first 5 minutes of Game 1, and we took it to the bank at +160. Here’s why I’m going back to it at +140.
Nashville led the league in penalty minutes. You’d think they’d tighten up for playoffs, but it didn’t happen. At least in Game 1. They gifted Colorado 5 Power Plays, of which they converted 2 for goals.
Obviously the Preds will do their very best to avoid the box tonight, but it won’t be easy. That’s because this Avalanche team is known to draw lots of penalties vs. really any opponent thanks to their blistering speed. From Nashville’s perspective, it’s a pick your poison kind of thing. Either let them get odd man rushes and score in 5v5, or take a penalty and test your luck on the Penalty Kill.
Assuming the Avs will get at least 3-4 Power Play Opportunities again tonight, I like Cale Makar to contribute a Power Play Point (PPP), which could cash via a goal or assist while a man up.
Makar is effectively the ‘quarterback’ of Colorado’s lethal 1st Power Play unit. He stands up top by the blue line with the goal of finding open shooters for one-timers. His ability to zip tape to tape passes to prolific scorers like Mikko Rantanen and Nathan MacKinnon leads to plenty of assist opportunities. Makar also has the ability to score goals himself as we saw the other night.
This bet cashed in all 4 of Makar’s games vs. Nashville this year (reg. season + playoffs), and while it won’t cash every time, I like his chances of running it back at home tonight in Game 2.
From a bet size & risk management perspective — I recommend splitting your bets between the Power Play Point and his standard Assist prop as follows:
- Risk 0.5 Units (i.e., half your normal bet size) on Cale Makar over 0.5 Power Play Points (+140)
- Bet to win 0.5-1 unit on Cale Makar over 0.5 Assists (-115)
Doing it this way ensures we still have a chance to cash if Nashville is uncharacteristically disciplined tonight.
I’m comfortable with having 1.5 units of exposure to Cale Makar tonight, so I risked 0.5u on the Power Play Prop (+140) and bet to win 1 unit on the Assist (-115) (odds via Caesars at time of writing)
