@FastMoneyLabs’ Best NHL Bet - 6/6

The Edmonton Oilers are facing elimination. And if that’s not devastating enough for Alberta: they’ll be without  leading goal scorer Evander Kane tonight, who was suspended for a scary hit that injured Nazem Kadri in Game 3.

Kadri is also out indefinitely for Colorado which certainly hurts them, but from an impact perspective: the team’s depth should help cushion the blow. The same cannot be said for Edmonton, who already lacked depth and are now spread razor thin.

The silver lining for Oilers fans of course relates to having the best player in the planet at the helm. Connor McDavid has consistently proven capable of putting his team on his back and carrying them forward. But realistically, what are the chances he can do it again?

As the home team in Game 3, Edmonton had the advantage of 2nd line change. This should’ve enabled the coaching staff to get better matchups for McDavid to exploit. And how did that go? In ironic fashion, the opposite actually happened.

Colorado outscored Edmonton 3-to-1 in 5v5 when McDavid was on the ice. This was driven, at least in part, by what I view as a bonehead coaching decision to split up the McDavid/Draisaitl combo that’s worked so well for Edmonton this playoffs. In hopes of creating more balance, they moved Draisaitl down to the 2nd line. Unfortunately for Oilers fans, that experiment has been tried before. It never worked, and Game 3 was no different.

Looking ahead to tonight, I’m assuming the Oilers will go back to the potent Draisaitl/McDavid combo, which they’ve used in past elimination games.

Which begs the question… How did Connor McDavid do in past elimination games? Here is the answer:

Looking at the table, we see McDavid has a 3-3 record in elimination games. 2 of those 3 wins came this year in Round 1 vs. the Los Angelas Kings.

We can also see that McDavid tends to shoot a little more in elimination scenarios. That stat, combined with the fact Evander Kane is out tonight, makes McDavid’s shot props appealing — at least until we look at pricing, which is sickening today (McDavid 3+ shots is -480, for example, which implies 85.3% probability — way too high).

Looking at point production, we can see McDavid’s goals and assists are not much different when he’s facing Elimination vs. other playoff scenarios. For the odds, I can say with confidence that betting McDavid 2+ points at -150 tonight is a bad bet. He could certainly cash it, but to put money on it doesn’t make sense at this price based on historical hit rates and his performance in this matchup vs. Nathan MacKinnon.

My key takeaway from this analysis is this: McDavid can (and probably will) put his team on his back tonight. But for the price we’re being asked to pay, it’s not worth our money.

Rather than bet on McDavid, I view the best wager for the price as a bet that complementary players will continue to put up stats in a potentially increased role tonight (since Evander Kane is out). And of the players that meet this criteria, I’m willing to put my money on one (so far). His name starts with Zach and ends with Hyman.

Zach Hyman is averaging 4.2 Shots on Goal (SOG) per game in the playoffs. He’s recorded 3+ Shots on Goal in 8 of his last 9 games, and 4+ SOG in 5 of 8 playoff home games. In the one elimination game Edmonton hosted this year (Game 7 vs. LAK), he recorded 7 shots on goal. Tonight, he should be bumped up to Edmonton’s 1st line to play with McDavid and Draisaitl. Not ideal from a matchup perspective vs. MacKinnon, but it’s exciting from a chemistry, linemate and ice time perspective.

For all those reasons, I really like Hyman’s chances of getting 4+ shots tonight, which I bet at +102 odds available on FanDuel at time of writing. That is my official FlashPicks play tonight.

Sometimes I get asked for perspective on the side/total, and I’m happy to comment on that here. At time of writing, I lean Avalanche on the Moneyline based on their depth advantage. I also have a moderate lean that the Game Total will finish Under 7 based on the expected impact of Kane and Hyman being out. That said, I find a good strategy is usually to bet the Live Overs in Elimination games. If Edmonton goes down, they have nothing to lose and will pull their goalie early and potentially often, which would favor a live Over.

At time of writing I have not placed any of those complementary bets though. Just my prop pick.

Zach Hyman 4+ Shots on Goal (+102)

Odds via FanDuel