@FastMoneyLabs’ Friday Night Parlay - 6/3

Last time Cole faced Detroit, it was disastrous. The date was April 19th, 2022. I wrote an entire article talking him up. And how did he reward us? He walked 5, allowed 2 runs, and failed to make it out of the 2nd inning. Apparently, that embarrassment triggered an epic turnaround. Since then, Cole:

• Posted a quality start in 6 of 7 appearances.
• Struck out 8+ batters in 5 of those 7 appearances.
• Earned 4 pitching wins, 2 no decisions and only 1 loss.
• Maintained an impressive 0.95 WHIP.

Sadly for Tigers fans, the opposite is true for Detroit. Since beating Cole on April 19th, they have the:

• 2nd lowest Slugging % vs. RHPs
• 2nd lowest Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) vs. RHPs
• 2nd lowest Weighted Runs Created+ (wRC+) vs. RHPs
• 7th highest Strikeout % vs. RHPs

Even with that terrible start on April 19th, Cole has a 31.4% lifetime K rate against this Tigers’ roster. The Yankees are 7-3 when Gerrit Cole starts and 7-2 in their last 9 overall. The Tigers are also 7-2 in their last 9, which sounds good… but there’s a catch. The wins all came at home vs. Divisional opponents. Against Non-Divisional opponents (like the Yankees), they’re just 10-19 (34.5%) this year. And on the road, they’re just 6-15 (28.6%). It’s not the Gerrit Cole Redemption Game we wanted – but dammit – It’s the one we deserve the April 19th fiasco. It would be ironic if he melts down again and busts our parlay on Leg 1. Until then, I rest my case: I’m backing #45 with confidence tonight.

The Guardians have won 3 straight games and are looking to extend it to 4 with their best pitcher on the hill tonight in Baltimore.

The days of Shane Bieber’s Cy Young-level dominance are over, but he’s still pitching well enough to earn our trust. His fastball velocity and strikeout rate are both down this year – normally red flags. But importantly, he’s keeping runs off the board, and that’s what counts. He’s allowed 2 or less earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts, and gets a relatively soft matchup tonight against a Baltimore Orioles team that hasn’t seen him since 2019.

If Bieber can hold the Orioles to 3 or less runs tonight, I really like his chances of winning the game. That’s because his counterpart will be Baltimore pitcher Bruce Zimmerman, who ranks in the bottom 3rd of literally every category of advanced stats on BaseballSavant.com except Walk Rate and Chase Rate.

It was tempting to play this Leg as a parlay with Bieber’s Strikeout prop. But considering the Orioles are striking out less recently, I prefer the simple bet that the Guardians will win the game as Leg 2.

The Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi this morning, which should serve as wakeup call for a talented, underperforming (and arguably overpaid) group like this one.

They’re just 2-7 in their last 9 games but are coming off a win and a day off. Their starting pitcher is TBD (presumably due to the timing of the management change), but it’s projected to be Zach Eflin. Eflin pitched poorly last time out vs. the Mets, but they were a divisional opponent. Against non-divisional opponents like the Angels, he’s yet to allow more than 2 runs in a start.

The Angels meanwhile have lost 8 straight games and arrive fatigued after playing a double header yesterday. Tonight, they’re tapping Rookie pitcher Chase Silseth in hopes of stopping the bleeding and preventing a 9 game losing streak.

When faced with a choice of backing an inspired, rested Phillies team at home vs. a fatigued, flailing Angels group led by Chase Silseth, I’ll take the former. Every time.

Good time and price to buy the dip and back the Phillies on their ML in our parlay for Leg 3.