While Eberle’s built his rep as more of a playmaker than shooter – he’s been putting pucks on net lately, which led me to consider this prop. In his first 28 games, he finished under 3 shots 19 times (68%). Since then, something’s clicked, as he’s achieved 3+ shots in 9 of his last 15 games (60%).
He enters tonight coming off two straight Unders, but they were both tough matchups (NYR and BOS). Importantly, while he only had 2 shots on goal in a very tough matchup vs. Boston last game, he still attempted 8 shots, but 2 were blocked and 4 missed the net.
As a student of shots on goal props, I believe shot attempts are predictive of future shots on goal. In Eberle’s case, he only landed 25% of his attempts last game, which suggests to me that positive regression is imminent.
String all that together tonight, and I see a perfect spot to back the revenge narrative on a player that’s also due for positive statistical regression. And you’re telling me I can bet this for plus money odds at time of writing? Say-less. Feed me this OVER!