With All-Star Weekend around the corner, we’re staring at a short slate with low game totals. Not ideal, but it could be worse. At least we have games to bet on, right?
I’ve ran through every game, and while I don’t see much value on the board, I found one intriguing spot. If you believe in player revenge narratives – read on. If you don’t, stick with me, because I see a statistical edge to this pick as well.
After four seasons as a fan-favorite in New York, how was Eberle rewarded? He wanted to stay, but the Islanders felt differently as they left Eberle unprotected in last summer’s expansion draft, and the rest is history. The league’s newest team, Seattle, promptly swooped him up, named him Alternate Captain, and this weekend, he’ll make the trip to Las Vegas as the Kraken’s lone representative in the All-Star Game.
That brings us to tonight, where the former 1st round pick gets to face his former team for the first time. I love betting these spots because the player is usually extra motivated to prove their old team wrong. In Eberle’s case – we don’t have to speculate, because he wanted to stay in New York.
In recent media comments, Eberle said he “circled” this game the moment the schedule came out and hinted he expects to have “a little more jump to [his] step” tonight vs. his former teammates.
While Eberle’s built his rep as more of a playmaker than shooter – he’s been putting pucks on net lately, which led me to consider this prop. In his first 28 games, he finished under 3 shots 19 times (68%). Since then, something’s clicked, as he’s achieved 3+ shots in 9 of his last 15 games (60%).
He enters tonight coming off two straight Unders, but they were both tough matchups (NYR and BOS). Importantly, while he only had 2 shots on goal in a very tough matchup vs. Boston last game, he still attempted 8 shots, but 2 were blocked and 4 missed the net.
As a student of shots on goal props, I believe shot attempts are predictive of future shots on goal. In Eberle’s case, he only landed 25% of his attempts last game, which suggests to me that positive regression is imminent.
String all that together tonight, and I see a perfect spot to back the revenge narrative on a player that’s also due for positive statistical regression. And you’re telling me I can bet this for plus money odds at time of writing? Say-less. Feed me this OVER!
If you’re unable to bet Player Shots on Goal props, you could consider betting Eberle to score a goal (+200 at time of writing). He hasn’t scored in 21 games – but perhaps he’s due?
If you’re not feeling risky, a safer bet is to put your money on the Game Total staying under 5.5. These teams are both playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, so the fatigue factor should be real tonight. At least for everyone not named Jordan Eberle.
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