@FastMoneyLabs' NHL Monday Best Bet - 5/12

$FML has a pick for Monday's NHL slate as the Las Vegas Knights travel to Boston to face the Bruins.

Boston Bruins (20-3) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (18-7-1)

14 wins, 0 losses. That’s Boston’s record on home ice this season. 11 of the 14 wins came by 2+ goal margins. Factoring in odds — betting them to cover the Puck Line (i.e. spread) at TD Garden has returned +10.3 units of profit with +62.4% ROI.

Boston has also dominated this head-to-head matchup. They’re 6-2 all-time vs. the Vegas Golden Knights; however, it’s worth noting all 6 wins came under Head Coach Bruce Cassidy. The Bruins recently shocked the hockey world by firing him this past offseason.

Cassidy was promptly hired by Vegas and is off to a fantastic start, with his team earning 37 standings points thus far — good for #1 in the Western Conference. They’ve been especially strong on the road posting a 11-2-1 record away from home entering play tonight.

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This sets up what I view as a perfect storm of a matchup tonight. It’s the NHL’s best home team vs. one of the top road teams. It’s a revenge spot for Coach Cassidy. Boston’s stars also surely want revenge vs. their former coach (who, rumor has it, wasn’t very well liked in the locker room).

While I expect a tight game, Vegas’ best player Jack Eichel is a game-time decision, and that’s notable. Tonight also marks the Knights’ 4th straight road game. They’ve been winning but were arguably outplayed in several recent games. After tonight, they’ll fly home for a 3-game home stand.

All that is to say — I see fatigue weighing on a Vegas group that’s probably underperformed their record thus far. If Eichel can’t go, the betting market will shift further towards Boston closer to game time. Even if he plays, I see the Bruins outmuscling their Western Conference foe in this particular spot. I also like how each of Boston’s last 5 games were against playoff caliber teams. Vegas’ recent schedule has been softer, and I think they’re due for a rude awakening.

While backing Boston on the -1.5 puck line is tempting… I prefer to back them to win in regulation. 11 of their 14 home wins this season came in 60 minutes.

FML's Pick



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