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$FML's +657 Friday Night NHL Parlay - 2/17

$FML is going for a second straight Friday Night Parlay winner with this +657 parlay for tonight's NHL action - let's do it!

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Leg 1: Ottawa Senators ML (-275) vs. Chicago

To start the party – I’m fading the lowly Blackhawks and backing the sizzling Senators at home! They’re 6-1 in their last 7 and making a playoff push, whereas Chicago is clearly tanking for draft positioning and deserves to be relegated.

Looking at standings, Ottawa trails Florida by only 7 points for the last Wild Card spot. That’s pretty damn good considering they also have 5 games at hand over the Panthers. The Senators are in terrific position, but to stay afloat, they need to continue winning – especially vs. bad teams like Chicago.

For what it’s worth: I noticed Chicago’s 8-0 vs. Ottawa since 2017. Not personally putting any weight into that, though, due to roster turnover. They’ve yet to clash this season, and the 2023 Blackhawks are historically bad, while the Senators are improved.

Long story short: I’m backing the home team to win with confidence tonight!

Leg 2: Wild/Stars 1st Period Under 1.5 (-115)

Did you know the 1st Period UNDER market is printing money? Taking it every NHL game this season has returned +70.82 units of profit (417-371-86) (source: EV Analytics). That’s insane.

It’s not just a subset of teams, either. Of the 32 NHL clubs, 27 (84%) are profitable to the 1P Under, and Minnesota ranks #1 in that department. Blindly backing it in Wild games is 33-17-4 (+18.73 units, +31.32% ROI) overall and 18-7-3 (+13.21 units, +43.24% ROI) at home. In their last 10: it’s 9-0-1 (+9.56 units, +86.05% ROI). The trend is easy to explain, too. It reflects the fact they score the 6th fewest 1P goals per game (0.7) while allowing the 11th fewest (0.78).

1st period goals aren’t easy to get vs. Dallas, either. They surrender the 2nd fewest goals in the 1st frame (0.62/game) driven by consistent defense and stellar goaltending.

I view the risk as the Stars’ offense. They rank Top-10 in 1P goal scoring on the road, but given this match has a low total (o/u 5.5), it’s a risk I’m willing to accept at the -110 price!

Leg 3: Artemi Panarin (NYR) over 0.5 Assists (-110) vs. Edmonton Oilers

Note: I also placed a straight wager on this prop to win 1 unit! Really like this one.

The league’s hottest team swipes into Alberta riding a 6-game win streak. Superstar Forward Artemi Panarin has led the charge for the Blueshirts, printing an insane 12 points in that stretch (2.0 per game).

Now here’s the crazy thing about Panarin’s heater: his last 12 points were evenly split between goals (6) and assists (6), and all 6 goals came in the last 2 games. He scored 4 on Saturday vs. Carolina, followed by 2 on Wednesday vs. Vancouver. I find this funny, since Panarin’s not really known as a goal scorer. He's a pass-first playmaker. Of his 631 career NHL points, 426 were recorded via assist (67.5%). His 44 assists this season compare to just 18 goals (of which, 6 came in the last 2 games).

All that is to say – I love Panarin to stay hot and find the scoresheet in an intriguing matchup tonight! The question then becomes, how will he record it? Will it be a goal, or assist? Crazier things have happened, but I’m willing to bet his next point will be an assist at -110!

For a safer bet: consider taking him to record a point in the parlay and sprinkling assist with a straight bet.

Leg 4: Adrian Kempe (LAK) over 0.5 Points (-180) vs. Anaheim Ducks

This Swedish sniper is sizzling. Betting him to record a point is 8-3 (73%) in his last 11 games overall, including 5 different multi-point performances.

Tonight, he gets an A+ matchup vs. a Ducks team he historically dominates. His 1.31 points per game vs. them (since 2021) ranks #2 out of all opponents faced. Betting Kempe to find the scoresheet vs. them is 10-2 (83%) in their last 12 H2H. They’re already clashed once this season, and Kempe recorded 2 assists.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles is heavily favored to win tonight with a high team total. These two simple facts sent me hunting for a Kings scoring prop – and of the choices: I like Kempe!

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The $FML Slip

I got +657 odds for the parlay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units! (i.e. half my normal bet size)

Note: I also placed a straight wager on the Panarin prop to win 1 unit!

I love this ticket, but parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. Please bet responsibly if tailing & best of luck!

FML Friday Night Parlay
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