$FML's Best Bet for NHL Tuesday - 2/7

The reigning Stanley Cup champs are red hot on a 7-1 run in their last 8. They’ve outscored opponents 33 goals to 15 in that stretch – a dominant +18 margin. That’s great, but the near-term outlook is even brighter, with two key Avalanche players expected to return from IR tonight (Forward Valeri Nichushkin and Defenseman Bowen Byram).

Meanwhile the Penguins waddled into All-Star Break icy cold and treading water. They’ve now dropped 12 of their last 17 games. Looking at the last 5 contests they won: 3 came by a slim, 1-goal margin and 2 required Overtime. It’s a trend that spells trouble vs. team that Pittsburgh’s failed to beat in regulation time since 2018.

If the Pens wants to smash the “reset” button and spark a run, they’re facing an uphill battle – at least initially. Starting Goaltender Tristan Jarry missed the last 3 games before break and remains sidelined. This leaves Casey DeSmith as the expected starter tonight. He’s allowed 5+ goals in 3 of his last 4 outings, and the Penguins are just 5-8 when he starts between the pipes this season.

Pittsburgh opened as -120 Moneyline favorites for tonight’s contest. Market forces have since taken over and tugged the odds closer to a Pick ‘Em. History suggests this isn’t a comfortable Moneyline range for Penguins bettors. They’re just 5-8 outright this season when the moneyline closed in the -128 to +102 range, and just 2-8-3 as Moneyline Underdogs. Meanwhile Colorado is a dominant 4-1 when the moneyline closed in the -122 to +108 range.

Taken together: recent form, betting trends and injury considerations all point to Colorado tonight. Market Signals also support a pick on the road team. Pittsburgh has home-ice advantage, but that’s about it, in my assessment.

Any team can win any night in the NHL, but when the reigning Cup champs are red hot and priced as a Pick ‘Em, I’ll back them every time!