If you follow $FML on Twitter, you know we faded the Ducks in the Team Shots on Goal market last night vs. the Rangers. Not all predictions age well. That one did, as it settled with a sweat-free 2nd period cash.
I see good reason to run it back tonight. Here’s why:
- This Ducks team has now allowed 48, 38 and 43 shots through 3 games.
- One of those games went to Overtime. Adjusting for that, they still lead NHL with 42.8 shots allowed per 60 minutes.
- All three games were played on normal rest. Tonight, it’s a back-to-back (B2B) scenario.
- B2Bs correlate with tired legs and more shots allowed. This phenomenon was especially true for Anaheim last season.
- They allowed a median of 37 shots in B2Bs, +12.1% vs. rested situations (median 33).
- Betting their opponents to pepper 34+ shots on net was 9-4 (69%) in their B2Bs.
Meanwhile, the Devils might be 0-2, but they’ve dominated shot flows, recording 37 and 39 in the two contests.
Expectations are extremely high for this Devils team after signing veteran winger Ondrej Palat from Tampa Bay and trading for Erik Haula from Boston this offseason.
So far they’ve fallen flat on those expectations, which might be a sneaky source of value on their shots props tonight. They’re a desperate group hungry to prove their worth to an equally desperate fanbase. And it starts tonight by firing shots early and often at home vs. a tired Ducks team. Anaheim’s backup goalie will also likely be in net, which could inspire more shots than usual.
This team shots market is available at Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unitbet. I bet to win a unit on the over at 33.5 (-112), and it’s my best hockey bet tonight.
If you’re not on those books, then I’d consider either joining or backing a related prop when it drops, which would be the Anaheim goalie’s saves prop. This gives you exposure to the Ducks leaking shots, with the risk being that you need the goalie to stop them. You’re compensated for the risk by getting a lower line than the Team Shots market (usually 4-5 ticks below). These Goalie lines typically release closer to game time. If it’s 28.5 or lower, then I’d consider taking it for 1 unit.
The Pick: New Jersey Devils over 33.5 Shots on Goal (-112) vs. Ducks via Barstool
