$FML's +200 NHL Best Bet for Tuesday Night - 3/21

Jack Hughes & Timo Meier each to record 4+ Shots (+200) vs. Minnesota Wild
Best odds Bet365

I stalk Jack Hughes props like a psycho, I know, but hear me out! This SGP is already 5-4 (56%) since Meier joined the team. That’s pretty damn good, all things considered. They’ve been skating together in 5v5 after all, and there’s only so many shots to go around in a hockey game, right?

Luckily, the man/myth/legend/GENIUS that is Coach Lindy Ruff saw the writing on the wall and decisively split his two-headed monster into different forward lines on Sunday.

Drumroll… The decision PAID:

• Timo Meier, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt combined to score 3 crucial, even-strength goals while allowing just 1.
• Jack Hughes, Dawson Mercer and Erik Haula weren’t as lucky (0 goals) but still generated 9 scoring chances (of which, 5 were classified high-danger) while allowing just 1 (0 high-danger). Importantly for predicting shots: they dominated puck possession, capturing 71% of total unblocked attempts when on the ice in even strength.

Lineups are subject to change (even mid-game), but according to Devils reporter Amanda Stein — these combos are here to stay, boosting the value (and probability) of a bet that Meier & Hughes each record 4+ shots any given night.

Minnesota’s not the best matchup on paper, but they’re far from the worst! They’re allowing 32.1 shots per 60 minutes in their last 10 road games (15th most), and each of their last 3 opponents eclipsed the 36+ total shots mark. Tonight, they’ll lace their skates for the 3rd time in 4 nights.

Betting Hughes to record 4+ shots is 14-2 (87.5%) in his last 16 at Prudential Center. I’ve seen worse, and Meier’s recording 4+ shots 71% of the time at home in the last 2 seasons (split between Sharks and Devils).

Skating together complicated things, and they still cashed this parlay more often than not. Now that barrier has been removed, and the sky is the limit! Let’s capitalize while we can.

This +200 price at Bet365 implies 33.3% chance we cash the ticket. I’m fairly confident it’s higher than that and wagered accordingly! (risk 0.5 units to win 1U)