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$FML's NHL Monday Prop Pick - 11/14

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Carolina Hurricanes (9-5-1) at Chicago Blackhawks (6-5-3)

The Eastern Conference powerhouse that is the Canes only landed 25 shots on net in their last match —easily their lowest mark of the season— and arrive in Chicago just 1-3 in their last 4 games.

Important context: all 4 of these recent games were vs. playoff teams. Against non-playoff teams like the Blackhawks, Carolina’s 6-1 this season with a +8 goal differential. They’re outshooting non-playoff opponents 257-to-176 in that stretch.

The abundance of shots off Hurricanes’ sticks vs. non-playoff teams has been a source of value in various prop markets, including Goalie Saves. Betting non-playoff teams’ goaltenders to record 31+ saves vs. Carolina is 6-3 (66.7%) this season. They’re facing 36.6 shots per game and stopping 33.1 in these matchups, +2.6 vs. tonight’s line.

Layer on the fact that Chicago’s goalie tonight will be Petr Mrazek, a netminder who recently spent 3 seasons with the Canes, and it has me liking this bet. He’s not the best goaltender but defeated his former team last year in a spot start as Toronto’s backup. While I’m less confident he’ll defeat them tonight — I see a strong chance he’ll get peppered with shots by a motivated Canes team. If I’m right — then I like Mrazek’s chances to stop 31+. The margin for error is thin, but I have him projected closer to 32 saves.

$FML's NHL Prop Pick

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Petr Mrazek over 30.5 @ -116
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