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$FML's NHL Thursday Best Bets - 3/23

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Dylan Strome 1+ Assist (+126) vs. Chicago

I bet to Win 1 unit at FanDuel (risk 0.79 units)

It’s a “must win” situation for the Caps, and Chicago’s in town? Sign me up!

60-minute ML? -1.5 spread? Player prop(s)? Honestly… pick your poison!

Here’s why I backed Strome to record an assist:

  • Caps have the 2nd highest Team Total tonight (over 3.5 is -150)
  • And this dude’s an assist MACHINE right now (11 in the last 12 games)
  • His next apple ties a career high (37 in a season) & the man wants 38+
  • Also facing his former team tonight (spent last 4 years in Chicago)
  • Alex Ovechkin plays like a SAVAGE (1) vs. this team AND (2) when he’s mad; tonight we get both (presumably), and Strome is his Center (*staring eyes emoji*)
  • They lit the lamp twice in 13 minutes together vs. Chicago on 12/13/22
  • Strome also has Power Play upside (1st unit Center)
  • Caps last 6 H2H vs. Chicago: 4.7 goals per game

STL Blues UNDER 29.5 Team Shots (-125) vs. Detroit

I bet to Win 1 unit at Bet Rivers / Barstool Sportsbook (risk 1.25 units)

I don’t bet many UNDERS, but this line feels a few ticks too high to me!

They failed to hit 30+ in 9 of their last 13 games. Since March 1st, the Blues average 27.3 shots per game (6th fewest). Betting them to record less than 30 shots on the road is 4-1 (80%) since Trade Deadline and 23-11 (68%) for the season.

Detroit’s also been stingy in this department. They’re allowing just 28.2 per game on home ice in their last 10 (9th fewest). Last week — the SOG GOATS, aka the Florida friggin Panthers, were in town… They average 34.5 shots away from home (3rd most) but were limited to 25 SOG that night (-27.5% drop off).

If the fizzling St. Louis Blues outperform the Florida Panthers and beat this line, I’ll tip my cap!

For what it’s worth… These teams just clashed two days ago in St. Louis, and Detroit dominated the shots battle 30-22. Tonight they’re in Detroit where STL finished UNDER in 5 of their last 7 visits. Since 2019: STL average just 25.8 shots in this matchup vs. DET regardless of location (-3.7 shots vs. line).

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