$FML's NHL Tuesday Best Bet - 11/15
Philadelphia Flyers (7-6-2) at Columbus Blue Jackets (4-9-1)
The tumbling Blue Jackets are getting peppered with the 2nd most shots per 60 minutes in NHL this year (35.97; +5.47 vs. this line we’re about to highlight). This continues a trend from last season when they allowed the 2nd most shots overall and most in 5v5 situations.
Betting their opponents to eclipse 31+ shots on goal (SOG) is 11-3 (78.6%) this season and 77-19 (80.2%) since last season.
The Flyers aren’t a shot producing machine, per se, but that’s usually OK vs. Columbus. Betting Philly to beat this 31+ Team SOG line is 4-0 vs. CBJ since last season. I also like how they’ve recorded 34+ SOG in 4 straight games entering tonight including a recent visit to Columbus.
Layer on the fact that Columbus lost two of their three best players to injuries in the last week (Zach Werenski and Patrik Laine), and I’m surprised this Team SOG line is so low.
My numbers have Philly recording closer to 34 shots tonight (+3.5 vs. the line). If the Flyers were more rested, I’d consider putting 1.5 units on this. However, given it’s their 3rd game in 4 nights, I bet to win 1 unit.
Note: If you can’t bet this Team SOG market, then Travis Konecny over 3.5 Shots (+130/FanDuel) is a fine pivot. Elvis Merzlikins over 29.5 saves also works, but the best value is Team SOG at Barstool (I have Merz projected closer to 31 saves on 34 shots faced).
$FML's Best Bet
The Pick: Flyers over 30.5 Team Shots (-118)
Market available at Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet