$FML's NHL Wednesday BEST Bet - 3/1

Did you know only 2 NHL teams can say they’ve beaten Connor McDavid’s Oilers 76%+ of the time since his debut (i.e., 2015-16), and Toronto is one of them? They’re 9-1-1 as visitors at Rogers Place (i.e., Edmonton’s home arena) since then, often exhibiting dominance. The Leafs are scoring 4.0 goals per game in these contests while allowing just 2.1, winning by an average margin of +1.4.

The 2022-23 Oilers roster is improved, but Toronto remains the far superior club both from a talent and depth standpoint. Leafs General Manager Kyle Dubas has aggressively improved his roster in the last 2 weeks via trades, too, and sadly: the same cannot be said for Edmonton (at least at time of writing).

Talent profiles aside – I value recent form, and Toronto is playing better hockey these days. They're 6-2 since the All-Star Break, which compares to 4-3-4 for Edmonton.

Looking at season trends: Edmonton’s 56% win rate vs. Western Conference teams compares to just 48% in the East, and Toronto falls in the 2nd bucket. Meanwhile, the Leafs are consistently winning 62% of their games regardless of opponent conference. They’re less successful on the road, but I’m willing to look past that based on their record at Rogers Place.