We will start with the Jokic leg first yes it looks like a ton of assists but you have to consider the correlation which is why the odds aren’t crazy. Porter Jr scores 40% of his assisted points from Jokic specifically so when Jokic is getting assisted generally they are to Michael Porter Jr. Jokic has managed to record 8+ assists in all but 1 home game and he actually had 14 in his most recent outing against the Bulls who are allowing the #10 most assists per game in the entire NBA. At home 8+ assists is something Jokic nearly does in his sleep now the main thing we need is Porter Jr to knock down 3 3s he did so in the last meeting as he made 6 total. He is over in 81% of games with Nikola Jokic which he logs 27 or more minutes so he has been pretty consistently hitting this line with Jokic who creates a ton of open looks & with Patrick Williams coming off the bench the Bulls just have no defenders with the size to match up with him as Caruso and Bev are both not tall enough and one of them likely Caruso will be on Jamal Murray working too limit him so it’s just going to be a tough ask to limit Michael Porter Jr especially with Vucevic drop coverage which will only help Michael get even more open looks. The Chicago Bulls are a perfect matchup for Porter Jr as they allow the #2 most 3 point attempts so while they have been limiting drives they have still been allowing a ton of 3’s & they did so in the last matchup with their lack of size to bother Porter Jr I don’t see how they stop or even limit him from taking a high volume of 3s in this one.
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This line is just too low for the matchup. Tre has only hit this over once in his last 4 games, but this is THE BEST matchup he could draw and has hit in 5 of 8 since joining the H...