Tonight we have a great match up in the NBA that features a lot of rising stars and guys poised for breakout seasons. De’Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings get ready to host Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies. I expect this to be a high paced game with tons of energy. Both of these teams like to play fast and push the ball in transition. We have the two aforementioned point guards that I believe will have big games and plenty of opportunities. However, I would like to highlight some other players I feel are capable of having successful nights and can bring us value.
Desmond Bane gets a really nice match up tonight and had a lot of success against Sacramento last year. He has cleared over 17.5 points in all three head to head matches last year. Scoring 18, 24, and 28 points. Bane also had 4+ 3's in all those games. I went back and forth between 3's and points for Bane, and settled on points. His line is currently at over 19.5 and juiced to the over at -135. I am going to tease him down two points and work a SGP with him. I chose points, because Memphis are the #1 team in the NBA when it comes to putting guys on the charity stripe. Bane has been doing a good job at drawing more fouls this year. He shot 90.3% from the FT line last year, and is currently shooting 85.7%. Bane is a streaky shooter, and relies a lot on the 3 ball. He is coming off an outstanding performance against Brooklyn where he drained 8 from behind the arc. I like him to keep shooting, and Memphis to foul him. I think Memphis might try to break his rhythm with tactical fouls when he isn’t shooting, and I also think they make some bad fouls on jump shooters. That’s something this young Memphis squad will have to get better at as the season progresses.
Harrison Barnes has been on a bit of a down swing so far this year. He isn't shooting well, he's getting reduced minutes, and has to take on a new role here in a changing Sacramento team. While Barnes has struggled from the floor, he has been contributing on the glass. In three games this year he had 8 rebounds against Portland, 7 rebounds against the Clippers, and 2 vs Golden State. Barnes has had 4+ rebounds in 64 of his last 80 games and hit the over in both head to head matches with Memphis last year. Memphis gives up the 3rd most offensive boards in the NBA. In a game where I am anticipating a lot of 3's and long rebounds, I like him to see a lot of opportunities. Even if he only plays 20ish minutes. His current rebound line is over 4.5 and I think that has nice value as a straight bet too. Barnes is a savvy ten year NBA veteran. He knows that if he wants minutes while in a shooting slump, he will have to contribute to the team's success in other ways. I believe his best impact on the game tonight will come from grabbing rebounds and helping Sacramento retain possession.
I don’t usually like to risk double exposure on the same player prop. This is also my first article for the NBA season. I have been working on a few different angles this year, and I have found success with both small “builders” as well as straight bets. I am going to leave how to play this one up to you. If you have checked out my soccer articles, you know that I like plus money props and don’t like to pay juice. That becomes difficult with NBA props. I recommend the SGP for people who want a plus money bet. I recommend the straight bet to people who prefer to bank on only one outcome. I am going to play both and cut my unit in half. I will put 0.5u on the SGP and play to return 0.5u on the straight bet.
