To start talking about this series, I have to preface that I think the Celtics are the better team and are most likely going to beat the Heat. But -175 to win the series is not good value for how close it really will be. So wait for the odds to update after tonight when the Heat will have their best chance to take the series lead.
There’s a strong history of coming out sluggish after a 7 game brawl, which the Celtics undoubtedly faced against Milwaukee. You don’t have to look back more than a year for evidence. The Bucks played toughest series of the second round against the Nets and then in Game 1 of the ECF, lost to the Hawks at home.
The Celtics are beat up to say the least; playing Giannis takes its toll. On only two days’ rest, they’ll be at a big disadvantage playing against a Heat team who’s been able to rest up since last Thursday and won’t be traveling. Both teams play hard-nosed, tough defensive basketball which takes a lot out of the players, making rest all that much more important. It will be difficult for the Celtics to play the brand of basketball they are best at tonight and the Heat make too few mistakes not to make them pay. Take the home team favorite in Game 1.