Out of respect for Red Wings fans, I’ll refrain from comment on their goaltending today. I’m not ready to risk friendships over that. Plus, that’s what Twitter is for, right?
@FastMoneyLabs’ +252 NHL Saturday Parlay - 3/12
Leg 1: CGY Team Total o3.5 (-185) vs. DET
After surrendering 6+ goals in 3 straight and 5 of their last 10 games, recent Red Wings box scores are starting to look like video game results.
Fading Detroit’s goaltending via their opponent’s team total is officially an auto-play for me going forward until they prove otherwise. This is a little against the grain for me, because the data clearly shows they’re due for better goaltending. I’m just not buying it until they prove it.
If you don’t believe in matchup agnostic auto-play strategies — you should know that Calgary’s flaming hot, covering 4+ goals in 6 of their last 7 games, including in several recently vs. much tougher opponents (Tampa Bay, Washington and Colorado).
Leg 2: NJD to score a 1st Period Goal (-200) vs. ANA
The Devils busted my Twitter parlay the other night, but successful long-term gambling requires short-term memory.
I say that because on Thursday, NJD’s offense really did hum like we expected — they were just the victim of bad luck. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, they generated 35 scoring chances in 5v5 play (3rd most for NJD in a game this season), captured 57.4% of the overall shot attempts and tallied 3.44 expected goals, but only 1 hit the back of the net. They also rang multiple posts.
The fact only 1 puck hit twine that night tells me they’re due for better luck. If I could hand select one opponent to get it against (besides Detroit), it would likely be Anaheim, a team that’s allowed 4+ goals in 9 of their last 12 and is averaging 5.8 goals allowed in their last 5 road.
While I’m fairly confident the Devils score 3+ today (and possibly more), I prefer the value for the price in a bet that they’ll score at least once in the 1st period, which they’ve done in 10 of their last 15 (66.7%) at home and 38 of 58 (65.5%) overall. The Ducks’ projected starting goalie, John Gibson, also allowed a 1st period goal in 7 of his last 8 starts as a visitor and 16 of 20 (80%) on the road overall, excluding games where he saw less than 5 shots.
Leg 3: Arizona Team Total o1.5 (-200) vs. BOS
If you told me I’d be trusting this bet vs. Boston in a FlashPicks parlay two months ago, I would’ve asked, “What are you smokin’, man?!” But no… this is actually happening.
After pulling off their 4th straight win on Thursday (all as underdogs), the Yotes have now scored:
- 5+ goals in 3 straight
- 3+ goals in 9 of their last 11 (81.8%), and
- 2+ goals in 13 of their last 14 (92.9%)
Now with those facts established… how could we not play this?!
Boston will be a true test, sure. But at a number this low and for the odds, I’ll take my chances!
I got +252 odds on this 3-leg parlay at MGM. Best of luck to anyone riding with me. Let’s cash it!
$FML NHL Parlay
CGY TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5, NJD TO SCORE A 1ST PERIOD GOAL & ARIZONA TEAM TOTAL OVER 1.5 @ +252
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