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FanDuel Special: Steven Stamkos (TBL) & Auston Matthews (TOR) both Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+285)

FanDuel added a new “Player Performance Parlay” market for the NHL Playoffs. Let’s take advantage.

Auston Matthews came out firing in Game 1, scoring twice and finishing with 6 shots on goal. As a team, Toronto dominated almost every aspect of the game on their way to crushing the defending 2x champs. I trust Matthews to stay hot and finish with 4+ shots on goal again tonight.

Tampa Bay meanwhile came out flat — unable to match the Leafs’ energy. It didn’t look good, but I trust  a team of seasoned vets like the Lightning are eager to bounce back in Game 2. They might not win, but I expect a much better effort starting with their superstars, namely Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov.

I could see a case for backing both players tonight. For this bet, I’m excited to back Stamkos. He’s a Toronto native with incredible career numbers vs. hometown team. Yet he failed to find the scoresheet and finished with just 2 shots on goal. Both came in the 1st period.

The silver lining in Stamkos’ numbers is that he still attempted 8 shots, which is a lot. At least one of those attempts hit the post (which doesn’t count as SOG) and multiple zipped within what felt like centimeters of hitting the net.

If he attempts at least 6-8 shots again, I’m confident Stamkos hits the net with at least 3 to cash his standard SOG prop tonight (i.e., over 2.5 SOG). Sportsbooks seem to agree as the odds for the ‘Over’ on his 2.5 SOG line moved to -155 for Game 2, up from -140 in Game 1 despite him finishing Under that day.

To enhance our potential payout, I like combining Stamkos & Matthews to get 4+ SOG each. Matthews’ standard line is o/u 4.5 SOG, so we’re getting a full shot worth of value on him. That, combined with the idea Stamkos is ripe for a bounce back night, made me eager to back this parlay at +285.

+285 feels like great value but I’d be remiss to not remind everyone, FanDuel isn’t stupid. There’s usually a catch to these things. I’m not personally seeing the catch so this is a risk I’m willing to take, but please bet responsibly!

FML

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