@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bets for NHL Friday - 2/18

NHL takes center stage on Friday night and the main man $FML has two best bets for the action!

If you follow me on Twitter, you know I like attacking this prop market! Sadly, it’s only available at Barstool Sportsbook, Bet Rivers and Sugar House. If you don’t have access to one of those books, I apologize in advance.

To be blunt: this is not the sexiest pick, because Carolina is one of the better defensive teams. On the season, they’re allowing the 2nd fewest shots on goal in the NHL (28.29 per 60 mins).

So, why am I targeting them? They say a picture is worth 1,000 words:

As you can see above, the key to this prop pick lies in the trends:

• Since January 1st, Carolina’s allowed 28+ shots in 13 of their 17 (76.47%) games
• In home games since Jan. 1, Carolina’s allowed 28+ shots in 7 of 9 (77.78%).

The key takeaway is that Carolina is still very good, but they’re also very capable of allowing 28+ shots. And lately, they’ve been allowing it more often than not. Next, let’s look at the 2nd piece of the equation: Nashville’s offense.

As you can see above, on a full-season basis, Nashville finished with 28+ shots in:

• 31 of 49 (63.27%) overall
• 14 of 26 (53.85%) on the road

Since Jan. 1, Nashville covered this number in:

• 10/17 (58.82%) overall
• 4/8 (50.00%) on the road

In an earlier season matchup vs. Carolina, Nashville posted 40 shots on goal. That’s impressive. To this day, only 1 team surpassed that vs. Carolina (LA Kings got 43 shots vs. CAR on 11/20/21).

Can Nashville repeat 40+? Probably not, especially since tonight’s game is in Carolina (last time was in Nashville).

What about 28+? The answer, according to my proprietary shots on goal model, is YES they can. My projections have the Predators finishing closer to 30 shots on goal, highlighting roughly +2.5 shots worth of expected value vs. this line.

Before you hammer the line, please be advised: This bet could get sweaty. It will not be a 2nd period cash. I do trust my model and the Preds to get it done for us in 60 minutes, though. Based on my process, a 2.5 shot difference in the line vs. my model supports a 1 unit bet (i.e., your normal bet size).

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For my second featured pick, I’m targeting the highest game total on the slate (o/u 7.0 at time of writing), which bodes well for a juicy plus money points prop.Why is the game total so high? Well, these are two of the highest scoring teams in the NHL:

• Minnesota Wild: 3.71 goals per 60 mins (3rd most)
• Florida Panthers: 4.00 goals per 60 mins (most in NHL)

Of the two teams, I chose to target Minnesota based on home/road splits for the same stat:

• At home, Minnesota’s scoring improves to 4.44 goals per 60 mins (2nd most)
• On the road, Florida’s scoring drops to 3.2 goals per 60 mins (9th most)

When these teams met on November 20th, 2021, they got off to a slow start (FLA 3, MIN 1 after 2nd period) before exploding for 5 goals in the 3rd period. In total, they combined for 9 goals (FLA 5, MIN 4).

Interestingly, on an expected goals basis (xGF), which factors in quality of scoring chances, Minnesota held a slight edge with 3.24 expected goals vs. only 2.94 for Florida.

If you can stomach fading Florida, I like Minnesota’s chances of stealing the game tonight as a home dog. According to SportsLine:

• Minnesota Wild are 5-1 straight up (SU) in games where their Moneyline closed in the -107 to +123 range.
• Conversely, Florida is only 5-5 SU in games where their Moneyline closed in the -144 to -114 range.

I personally haven’t had much luck fading Florida this year, which led me to prefer the prop angle tonight. Of the available options, I really like Kaprizov props tonight. Dude is absolutely electric. If you aren’t familiar with him yet, check this out:

That lightning quick speed and elite puck-handling ability enable Kaprizov to find the score sheet more often than not.

Entering tonight, he leads the Wild in scoring and ranks near the top of the league with a 1.34 points per game average (tied for 6th most in NHL).

In home games, Kaprizov’s points per game average improves to 1.7 points per game (up from 1.0 per game on the road). On the season, he’s achieved 2+ points in 10 of 19 (53%) home games.

When these teams clashed in November, Kaprizov tallied 2 points (1 goal and 1 assist). That was a Minnesota road game. Tonight, they play at home, where Kaprizov is even more dangerous.

All points considered, I feel the high game total, healthy home/road splits (both for Minnesota as a team and Kaprizov as a player), and Kaprizov’s current form (2+ points in 2 straight games and 5 of his last 10 overall) support a 1 unit bet at this price!

P.S. This is a matter of personal preference, but at odds like this, I prefer to size my bet to win 1 unit, rather than risk 1 unit.

If you missed his last hockey article, here's a reminder of how $FML got on!