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@FastMoneyLabs’ Best NHL Bets - 3/23

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Keeping today’s column short to ensure we lock in the best available line!

This player…

  • Leads the NHL with 46 goals.
  • Lit the lamp (i.e. scored a goal) in 6 straight games.
  • Scored 4 goals (total) in just 2 matchups this year vs. tonight’s opponent.
  • Recorded a hat trick (i.e. 3 goal game) in 2 straight home games vs. tonight’s opponent (dating back to 2020).
  • Lit the lamp in 7 of 11 (63.6%) career matchups vs. tonight’s opponent.

This player, as you may have guessed by now, is Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Tonight’s opponent, the New Jersey Devils (NJD), are playing their 2nd leg of a back-to-back (B2B) — a situation they’re allowing 4.33 goals per game (3rd most of any team in B2Bs)

It’s unclear who NJD will tap as their goalie tonight. Regardless, this sets up as a nice easy matchup that Auston Matthews historically dominates.

The Picks

With the Game Total currently hovering around 7, I’m comfortable riding 2 separate but related bets on Matthews tonight:

  1. Auston Matthews (TOR) to score a goal (-124) vs. NJD
  2. Auston Matthews (TOR) over 1.5 points (+140) vs. NJD
    • I got +140 odds at Caesars Sportsbook.
    • This cashed in both matchups vs. NJD this year.
    • It also cashed in 7 of his last 10 home games.
    • On the season, it has a 52% hit rate in his home games (27-game sample).
    • I’ll take +140 odds on a bet hitting 52% in a 27-game sample almost every time, and especially when it’s a favorable matchup like this!

$FML Pick

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Auston Matthews to score a goal @ -124

$FML Pick

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Auston Matthews Over 1.5 Points @ +140

Strategy Suggestion

Before you lock these in, please be advised that backing two related props like I’m recommending today is a risky strategy. If he doesn’t score a goal, for example, there’s a good chance he also fails to record 2 points.

I’m personally comfortable with the risk/reward trade off on these two bets today (otherwise I wouldn’t recommend). At the same time, choosing to ride one or the other is a fine strategy, too. It’s really a personal preference of how much risk you’re willing to take. If I could only bet one, it would be Auston Matthews to score a goal.

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