Not overthinking this one. The last time the Carolina Hurricanes lost a Game 7 was. . . Never. Since 1997, when the franchise moved to Raleigh, they’re a perfect 6-0 in Game 7s.
The Canes are also a perfect 7-0 on home ice in this year’s playoffs. Conversely, the Rangers are just 1-5 on the road this playoffs.
Feels like a slam dunk, but those trends appear properly reflected in the moneyline price tonight. From a pure value perspective, a case could certainly be made to back Rangers ML plus money odds tonight. At the same time, I really feel this is the Canes’ year. They have more playoff experience on their roster, which I value in Game 7 situations and feel gives them an edge on top of home ice advantage. For those reasons, I’m backing Canes ML with confidence despite the somewhat expensive price.
To improve our potential payout, I considered pairing Canes ML with a bet that the Game Total will stay Under 6.5 (Alt Line). This stems from research I published in Round 1 regarding Game 7 totals:
- Since 2018, Under 6.5 is 14-6 (70%) in Game 7s.
- This year, it is 5-1 (83%).
- Of course, the 1 time it went Over was the game I wrote about this and endorsed the Under, but you get the point.
If you don’t mind sweating an Under potentially all night, you can bet that combo (Canes ML x Under 6.5) for +145 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.
I don’t mind sweating, but to reduce the probability of all-night sweat I made a slight pivot and paired Canes ML with a bet the 1st Period Total will stay under 2.5 (Alt Line). This lowers the risk of late empty net goals killing our bet. It comes with a lower payout as a result, but at +100 odds it’s a tradeoff I’m willing to make!