@FastMoneyLabs' NHL Playoff Best Bets - 5/31

Not all $FML predictions age well. Last week’s article highlighting this prop did. Draisaitl recorded 4-points that night to extend his streak to 5 straight games with 3+ points.

What goes up must come down. That’s physics. The problem for science is that Connor McDavid carries unworldly talents not easily explained by physics. And Leon Draisaitl is his linemate.

Tonight’s lineups are still TBA, but could it be more obvious? If Edmonton is smart, they won’t change a thing. And if books are stupid, they’ll continue letting us bet Draisaitl to get 2+ points at +150. Books are occasionally stupid – but not for long. Let’s capitalize while we can and bet the Poor Man’s Connor McDavid to get 2+ Points at +150 tonight.

Leg 1: Nazem Kadri 3+ Shots (-215)

38.4% of SOG allowed by Edmonton this playoffs have been to the Center position. That’s good news for Nathan MacKinnon and Nazem Kadri SOG bettors alike, since both players line up at Center. I already bet MacKinnon to get 5+ shots as a single. For our parlay, I’m pivoting to Kadri.

Betting Nazem Kadri to record 3+ SOG is:

• 23-4 (85%) in his last 27 home games.
• 6-4 (60%) in this year’s playoffs (home + away).
• 2-0 this year vs. Edmonton (average 4.0 per game).

He’s coming off a 7 SOG performance in Game 6 vs. STL. Don’t expect another 7-shot performance tonight, but 3+ feels reasonable. That is. . . assuming Kadri will avoid the matchup with Connor McDavid (who will presumably be matched up against Nathan MacKinnon).

Leg 2: Zach Hyman 3+ Shots (-180)

Evander Kane might be the surer bet, but for the odds I prefer Hyman as a 2nd line player who presumably avoids the matchup against Nathan MacKinnon’s line (assuming that will be McDavid’s duty).

Hyman averaged 5.0 SOG per game last series (double this line) and finished with 6+ in 3 of the 5 games. He had 3+ SOG in all 3 road games, which I found particularly impressive against an opponent like Calgary that usually suffocates visitors’ SOG props on home ice.

Looking ahead to this series, it’s worth noting Colorado has allowed the fewest SOG per game of any team in the playoffs. I feel that stat is somewhat misleading though based on their Round 1 & 2 matchups. Nashville and St. Louis don’t shoot the puck nearly as frequently as other teams like Edmonton.

In 2 visits to Denver this year, Edmonton had 50 and 27 SOG. Very different performances but they give us a solid floor of what to expect. At a bare minimum, I think Edmonton should get 27+ shots on net. And if we’re right, I trust Hyman to be responsible for at least 3 of them.

• Evander Kane continues to be a solid option for 3 or 4+ SOG. He did well in the matchup vs. Colorado this year, recording 4+ SOG in 2 of their 3 games, including a 6 SOG performance most recently (April 22nd).·
• Artturi Lehkonen is an excellent option for the price to get 2+ SOG tonight. He was recently bumped up to Colorado’s 1st line in the spot previously held by Valeri Nichushkin. Valeri cleared 3+ shots with ease from that spot almost daily thanks to the elite playmaking abilities of Colorado’s 1st line staples (MacKinnon and Landeskog). Now that Lehkonen’s in that role, there’s a good chance he’ll pick up right where Nichushkin left off by recording consistent SOG.
• Evan Bouchard is also a great option for 2+ SOG. 33.7% of SOG allowed by Colorado this playoffs have been to the Defenseman position played by Bouchard. In 3 matchups vs. Colorado in the regular season, Bouchard recorded 2, 6 and 4 SOG (most recently).