Leg 1: Nazem Kadri 3+ Shots (-215)
38.4% of SOG allowed by Edmonton this playoffs have been to the Center position. That’s good news for Nathan MacKinnon and Nazem Kadri SOG bettors alike, since both players line up at Center. I already bet MacKinnon to get 5+ shots as a single. For our parlay, I’m pivoting to Kadri.
Betting Nazem Kadri to record 3+ SOG is:
- 23-4 (85%) in his last 27 home games.
- 6-4 (60%) in this year’s playoffs (home + away).
- 2-0 this year vs. Edmonton (average 4.0 per game).
He’s coming off a 7 SOG performance in Game 6 vs. STL. Don’t expect another 7-shot performance tonight, but 3+ feels reasonable. That is. . . assuming Kadri will avoid the matchup with Connor McDavid (who will presumably be matched up against Nathan MacKinnon).
Leg 2: Zach Hyman 3+ Shots (-180)
Evander Kane might be the surer bet, but for the odds I prefer Hyman as a 2nd line player who presumably avoids the matchup against Nathan MacKinnon’s line (assuming that will be McDavid’s duty).
Hyman averaged 5.0 SOG per game last series (double this line) and finished with 6+ in 3 of the 5 games. He had 3+ SOG in all 3 road games, which I found particularly impressive against an opponent like Calgary that usually suffocates visitors’ SOG props on home ice.
Looking ahead to this series, it’s worth noting Colorado has allowed the fewest SOG per game of any team in the playoffs. I feel that stat is somewhat misleading though based on their Round 1 & 2 matchups. Nashville and St. Louis don’t shoot the puck nearly as frequently as other teams like Edmonton.
In 2 visits to Denver this year, Edmonton had 50 and 27 SOG. Very different performances but they give us a solid floor of what to expect. At a bare minimum, I think Edmonton should get 27+ shots on net. And if we’re right, I trust Hyman to be responsible for at least 3 of them.