I’ve mentioned in the past that I believe successful sports betting requires short-term memory. We haven’t had the best luck with these goalie props in the playoffs, but this line feels a tick too low. I had to play it! Here’s why:
- To cash at this 27.5 number, we need Raanta to face at least 28 shots, which Boston achieved in all 8 matchups vs. Carolina this year (regular season + playoffs).
- Realistically we’ll need Boston to get closer to 32-33 shots on net (assuming Raanta won’t get a shutout), which they achieved in 6 of the 8 matchups.
- Notably, the 2 games they were held under 32 SOG were Boston’s 2 home games this series. They finished with just 28 SOG in Games 3 & 4, which I think explains why this line is so low.
- Boston’s low shot totals in Games 3 & 4 feel somewhat fluky though considering they ranked #3 in shots on goal at home this year and consistently got 32+ vs. Carolina this year.
- Barstool Sportsbook seems to agree. They offer bets on Team SOG totals and are listing Boston’s Team SOG line at o/u 34.5 today.
- That’s a big disconnect vs. this Saves line. It implies the Bruins will score 7 goals (34.5 SOG - 27.5 Saves = 7 implied goals). Yet Boston’s Team Total line is listed at o/u 3 at MGM. Very interesting.
- I feel Barstool’s SOG line is about right. Maybe a tick too high. But in an elimination game it feels about right, assuming Boston will come out firing. If I’m correct on that, then FanDuel’s Saves Prop line is at least 1-2 ticks too low.
For all those reasons, I’m antsy to back Antti Raanta’s saves prop tonight at 27.5. If the line moves, I would still play it up to 28.5.
