After scoring in 7 straight games and 9 of his last 10 — a sprinkle on his goal scorer prop (+175) might be sensible. 8-game goal scoring streaks do happen, but they’re rare, which led me to prefer the safety of his shots on goal (SOG) prop tonight for reasons outlined below.
Perron’s been obliterating this 2.5 SOG line lately.
- In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 4.7 SOG (+2.2 vs. tonight’s line).
- In his last 5, it rises to 5.8 SOG per game (+3.3 vs. line).
Importantly, the rising average is backed by consistent results. Said differently — it is not just a couple fluke games inflating his average.
- He’s now finished with no less than 4 SOG (+1.5 vs. tonight’s line) in 8 of his last 10 games.
- In his last 5, he had: 7, 7, 6, 4 and 5 (most recently).
The timing of Perron’s trend coincides with a marked shift in his shooting tendencies.
- In his last 10 games, he’s attempting 7.5 shots per game, up +2.6 vs. his full-season average.
- In his last 5, he’s attempted no less than 7 shots per game.
On the season, he’s only getting about 57% of his shot attempts on net, which underscores the importance of shot attempt volume for Perron.
- The more shots he attempts, the more cushion it builds for missed and blocked shots.
- Using simple math, to cash his 2.5 SOG prop, we need Perron to attempt about 5.25 shots.
- Multiply 5.25 attempts by his 57% on goal percentage, and it gets us to 3 SOG.
- Remember: In his last 10, he’s attempting 7.5 shots per game (+2.25 vs. what we theoretically need to cash this ticket).
The Flyers are also a fine opponent to target for SOG props.
- They’re allowing nearly 34 SOG per game on the road (6th most).
- They’re also allowing tons of goals, which supports sprinkling on Perron’s goal scorer prop, too, if you’re feeling risky (or lucky).
Odds via BetRivers