@FastMoneyLabs’ Top NHL Player Props - 3/24

David Perron (STL) o2.5 Shots on Goal (-134) vs. Flyers

After scoring in 7 straight games and 9 of his last 10 — a sprinkle on his goal scorer prop (+175) might be sensible. 8-game goal scoring streaks do happen, but they’re rare, which led me to prefer the safety of his shots on goal (SOG) prop tonight for reasons outlined below.

Perron’s been obliterating this 2.5 SOG line lately.

  • In his last 10 games, he’s averaging 4.7 SOG (+2.2 vs. tonight’s line).
  • In his last 5, it rises to 5.8 SOG per game (+3.3 vs. line). 

Importantly, the rising average is backed by consistent results. Said differently — it is not just a couple fluke games inflating his average.

  • He’s now finished with no less than 4 SOG (+1.5 vs. tonight’s line) in 8 of his last 10 games.
  • In his last 5, he had: 7, 7, 6, 4 and 5 (most recently).

The timing of Perron’s trend coincides with a marked shift in his shooting tendencies. 

  • In his last 10 games, he’s attempting 7.5 shots per game, up +2.6 vs. his full-season average.
  • In his last 5, he’s attempted no less than 7 shots per game.

On the season, he’s only getting about 57% of his shot attempts on net, which underscores the importance of shot attempt volume for Perron.

  • The more shots he attempts, the more cushion it builds for missed and blocked shots.
  • Using simple math, to cash his 2.5 SOG prop, we need Perron to attempt about 5.25 shots.
  • Multiply 5.25 attempts by his 57% on goal percentage, and it gets us to 3 SOG.
  • Remember: In his last 10, he’s attempting 7.5 shots per game (+2.25 vs. what we theoretically need to cash this ticket).

The Flyers are also a fine opponent to target for SOG props.

  • They’re allowing nearly 34 SOG per game on the road (6th most).
  • They’re also allowing tons of goals, which supports sprinkling on Perron’s goal scorer prop, too, if you’re feeling risky (or lucky).

Odds via BetRivers

Honorable Mentions / Strong Leans for STL vs. PHI

Jordan Kyrou (STL) to record an assist (+112)

  • This cashed in 11 of his last 14 games.
  • Timing coincides with getting a more prominent role on STL’s 2nd line (previously was 3rd line).

Brayden Schenn (STL) to score a goal (+205)

  • Schenn used to play for Philadelphia and scored in 3 of their last 4 matchups (including 1 of 1 this year).
  • The safer play is Schenn to record a point, which cashed in 5 of his last 6 games. He had 2+ points in 4 of those games.
  • Recently, most of his points are coming via assist, but he did score a goal last game, and I find Schenn to be a streaky goal scorer.

These are not official plays for me.

Noah Dobson (NYI) o0.5 Assists (+122) vs. Red Wings

The New York Islanders are fighting for a playoff spot and get a nice matchup tonight at home vs. Detroit Red Wings’ backup goaltender Thomas Greiss.

  • Last time we saw Greiss, he allowed 3 goals on just 6 shots before being pulled from the game in the 1st period.
  • Greiss used to play for the Islanders and could be extra motivated to get right tonight. If you’re a believer in revenge narratives, this might not be the play for you.
  • I’m a big revenge narrative guy but am willing to roll the dice on a bet the Islanders will score some goals tonight.

Of the options, I considered keeping it simple by backing NYI team total but decided to back Dobson to record an assist instead.

  • This bet missed in 2 straight games but hit in 7 of 8 before that.
  • It also hit in both matchups vs. DET this season.

The safer bet is Dobson to record a point (which includes goals + assists), but I prefer plus money odds for the assist tonight.

  • 14 of his last 16 points came via assist.
  • If you’re feeling risky, you could consider sprinkling on Dobson to record a Power Play Point (+250), too, which hit in 6 of his last 10 games.
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