@FastMoneyLabs’ Top Player Prop Pick - 3/28

$FML Pick

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PATRICK KANE (CHI) OVER 1.5 POINTS VS. BUFFALO @ +100

To say #88 on the Chicago Blackhawks is on a roll right now might be an understatement.

In the last 10 games, Patrick Kane has either scored or assisted on 22 of Chicago’s 37 goals (excluding shootouts). Said differently, Kane is contributing a point on roughly 59.5% of his team’s goals right now. That’s nuts. I actually find it bonkers considering he’s just 1 of 20 skaters dressing for these games.

Kane’s rising share of Chicago goal scoring has been a consistent trend since January, as you can see in the chart below:

nhl

So we’ve established that Kane is a great target for points props right now. Can we trust him to get 2+ tonight?

I will go out on a limb and say the answer is YES, considering he’s done it in:

  • 4 straight games
  • 6 of his last 8 played at United Center (Blackhawks home)
  • 8 of his last 12 overall

From a matchup perspective, it doesn’t get much better than Buffalo on their 2nd leg of a back-to-back (B2B), either.

  • In 12 B2Bs this season, the Sabres are allowing 3.67 actual goals (9th most) and 3.45 expected goals (4th most) per game. 
  • As the away team in a B2B, they’re allowing 3.79 expected goals (3rd most).

As icing on the cake, I’ll mention that Patrick Kane also grew up in Buffalo and historically thrives against his hometown team. Since 2017, he’s recorded 2+ points in 5 of their 7 matchups.

I feel we have a lot supporting this pick, and it has me excited to back #88 tonight!

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