@FastMoneyLabs’ Tuesday Top Player Prop Pick - 3/15

Rumor has it that Shots on Goal (SOG) props are officially live in New York?! Big if true. Let’s knock one out of the park to give y’all a good first experience, shall we?

When playing SOG props, we can use simple logic to identify the best opponents to target and dial up the analytics from there to determine the best player to back.

After scanning the board, I feel there’s no better opponent to target for shots tonight than Detroit (DET), a team allowing 33.1 SOG (9th most) on the road in their last 10. They’ve also been outshot by 5 consecutive opponents, including weaker teams like Arizona (who’ve been outshot by 87% of other opponents).

I also see Edmonton (EDM) as an ideal team to target for racking up shots tonight. I mentioned this on Twitter last week, and it held true that night plus the game after. When EDM hosts Eastern Conference opponents, they tend to dominate shots and are now averaging 36.7 SOG in 13 games as the home team vs. the East. That’s more SOG than EDM generates in any other situation (for example, more than at home vs. West and on the road vs. East).

As far as players go, why not target a guy who’s been belittling his 2.5 SOG number lately? This player…

• Now has 6 SOG (+3.5 vs. line) in 2 straight. Both 1st period cash.
• Finished with no less than 4 SOG (+1.5 vs. line) in 6 of his last 7.
• Covered this 2.5 line in 12 of his last 16 (75%).
• Is averaging 6.1 shot attempts per game in his last 10.
• Got 4 SOG vs. DET in November.

I also like this matchup at a deeper, micro-level for this player, too. 

• Since holiday break, I noticed he’s been getting 82% of his shots in 5v5 situations, up from 72.2% pre-holiday, indicating reduced reliance on the Power Play (PP) to get his shots.
• I view that favorably in a matchup vs. Detroit, a team that’s averaging 49:53 of 5v5 ice time in their last 10 games (3rd most). League average is 48:25 for the same period — which doesn’t feel too different, but I still find it meaningful.
• Now here’s the secret sauce: In the event this game features more penalties than expected, this prop pick comes with insurance, because this player is of the rare-breed that plays both PP and Short Handed situations. I feel that versatility adds unparalleled value to this player’s SOG prop at the 2.5 line relative to most other guys at this price.

This player recently moved down to the 2nd line with Leon Draisaitl — a subtle downgrade vs. his previous linemate (Connor McDavid) but still a potent combo.

In two games since the line change, this new 2nd line outshot their opponents 22 to 13 in 5v5 play, and this player finished with no less than 6 shots in each game.

If you’re feeling risky, you should know this player is currently stuck in an 8-game scoreless streak, but there are signs he’s due to score soon. I ultimately preferred the safety of the SOG prop, which cashed in 12 of his last 16 (75%), but a small sprinkle on the goal scorer might be in the cards for me.