$FML & MattyChucks' Collab Best NHL Bet - 11/22

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Buffalo Sabres (7-11-0) at Montreal Canadiens (9-8-1)

We missed last night, but stick with us! This market is ripe with opportunity.

With only 2 games on the slate, we’ve reviewed the board and are aligned on a betting angle we love for the Buffalo Sabres. Since winning 7 of their first 10 games, they’ve dropped 8 straight contests and arrive in Montreal hungry to flip the script.

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The Sabres’ desperation is really starting to pull through in shot numbers. Buffalo has now eclipsed the 30+ shot mark in 6 straight games including 3 vs. playoff teams. Betting them to get 29+ shots on target is also 10-2 (83.3%) in their last 12, while Montreal allowed 29+ in 15 of 18 (83.3%) overall and 12 of their last 13 (92.3%).

SOG stats

So why is Buffalo’s Team Shots line so low (o/u 28.5)? We believe it’s explained by the Sabres averaging just 26.5 shots per game on the road this year — a significant drop vs. 36.3 per game at home. Lift the hood on what really happened in those road games though, and it reveals the average is skewed low by a string of tough matchups. 3 of the 5 away games that finished Under 28.5 were vs. top-caliber teams (Tampa, Carolina, Edmonton), and one was a back-to-back.

Tonight, Buffalo is rested, motivated and hungry to get pucks on net in a very winnable matchup. They’re 3-2 vs. Montreal since 2021 and recorded no less than 32+ shots each time.

$FML & MattyChucks' Best Bet

While the Sabres moneyline is tempting, shot flows tend to be easier to predict, and this is a terrific line. If you agree, then hop on Buffalo to record 29+ shots with us at Barstool Sportsbook, Bet Rivers, Sugar House or Unibet.

The Pick: Buffalo Sabres over 28.5 Shots on Goal (-118)

$FML Best Bet
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