$FML's Best Bet for NHL Thursday - 12/15

$FML's Thursday Night NHL pick is a beauty, read his breakdown below!

Market available at Barstool Sportsbook, Bet Rivers, Sugar House and Unibet.

If you’re not on one of those books, consider either: (1) signing up, or (2) pivoting to one (or more) of the related Player Prop options listed at the bottom of this article.

I loooove Barstool Sportsbook because at times, their odds make absolutely no sense. Nashville’s goaltending is strong but even still, how is Winnipeg only -106 to score a Power Play Goal (PPG) tonight?!

The Predators lack discipline, and everybody knows it. Penalties have been their Achilles heel for years. This season is no different. They’re giving opponents the 10th most Power Play Opportunities (PPO) per game (3.5) and allowing them to covert at a 23.4% rate (12th most).

This presents a major problem tonight vs. one of the hottest Power Play units in the league. Winnipeg is converting PPOs at a 32.3% rate in their last 10 games (6th most). Betting them to score at least 1 Power Play Goal (PPG) is 8-1 in their last 9. It’s also 3-0 in head-to-head matchups vs. Nashville since 2020, and it wasn’t even remotely close. They obliterated this prop line, accumulating 6 PPG (2.0 per game) in those contests.

Tonight also marks Nashville’s 3rd game in 4 nights, a situation I tend to associate with fatigue. And tired legs boost the chances of taking penalties. It might not even matter though with this Predators team. Betting their opponents to score at least 1 PPG is 6-2 in their last 8 games regardless of rest status.

If Winnipeg gets at least 3-4 PPOs like I expect, then -106 is an amazing price for a bet they’ll score at least 1 PPG tonight.

If you can’t bet this market or are feeling risky, consider pivoting to one (or more) of the following players to record a Power Play Point (PPP):

• Kyle Connor (+130): 6 PPP in his last 10 games; 5 vs. Nashville last year
• Josh Morrissey (+190): 6 PPP in his last 10 games; 3 vs. Nashville last year
• Blake Wheeler (+235): 5 PPP in his last 10 games; 3 vs. Nashville last year