$FML's NHL Sunday Best Bet - 3/5

New Jersey outshot their last opponent 50-27 but lost the match. I’m buying the dip and backing their best player for a multi-point game. He’s -150 to record an assist and hasn’t scored himself in a few games, which tells me #86 is due. Hughes also ranks #2 on the Devils in Power Play Points, and Arizona give opponents the most power play opportunities in the league.

The Devils have the highest team total on the Sunday slate, and I’m convinced it’s justified. They also hold a strong incentive to win for playoff positioning, and there’s a chance reinforcements are on the way in the form of Timo Meier (31 goals), recently acquired via trade. He’s officially “day-to-day” with an upper-body injury, but the Devils social media team is hinting at his debut soon, if not tonight…

If Timo laces up, it’ll bolster Hughes’ chances to record assists (specifically on the Power Play; 5v5 impact will depend on lineups). Even if he can’t go, the impact to Hughes is minuscule. This 2+ points prop is cashing 65% in his last 20 games regardless of lineups, and a 65% hit rate corresponds to -186 fair odds. I’ll take +110 vs. a tanking team like Arizona every time.

Icing on the cake: Hughes is now 22 points away from setting the Devils franchise record for points in a season (currently Patrik Elias with 96). If he wants to pad his stats (he does), this is a perfect spot. And for what it’s worth… my 21-year-old and younger theory is in play, as the game will be played at Arizona State University.