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Atomic's NBA Saturday Best Bet: Hawks @ Heat - 3/4


In his debut FlashPicks article Atomic has zeroed in on a Player Prop pick for Atlanta's matchup against the Heat in Miami!

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Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat

Deandre Hunter has seen his points line plummet all the way down to 13.5 PTS & this is an amazing Matchup for him he has gone over in his last 2/2 this Season which is most relevant but also 8/9 dating back to last Season vs Miami he has gone over this line in 28/37 Games with 29+ Minutes & Last game with Snyder coaching we saw him take 14 FGA & get countless plays called for him with the mismatch (Lillard) who is Portland’s worst defender on him. Miami starts Vincent,Herro,Butler,Love,Adebayo so this means Butler & Vincent will be forced to guard Murray/Young while Herro will guard Hunter & I expect ATL to attack Herro like they attacked Dame LG where Hunter took 14 FGA. Herro is in the b39th - Percentile on DEF+/- & just a horrible defender who is limited by his wingspan just a good mu for Hunter.

Miami is allowing #2 most PPG to SF's - Compared to AVG L30D (+.477) so they have been struggling to defend his position & Atlanta also plays at the #9 fastest Pace in the NBA but they have a bottom 9 defense so I could see Miami getting some easy shots & playing a bit faster than usual The Heat defense has been T5 in the NBA but they can be weakened when you target Herro which teams have been doing. Miami is also allowing the #2 most 3 point attempts - Hunter scores 30% of his PTS from 3 & can heat up I am expecting the Heat to limit Trae as they have recently & Hunter/Dejounte to carry on more of a load here we have seen him still getting good minutes even with Saddiq in the lineups so I am not too worried. We have a good Matchup, High Hit - Rate & a matchup where Hunter has had previous success just a perfect spot for Hunter.

Atomic's Pick

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Deandre Hunter over 13.5 points @ -120
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