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@FastMoneyLabs' +529 Friday Night MLB Parlay - 5/12

We’re officially taking the summer off, so this might be our last Friday Night Parlay for a while. Let’s knock it out of the park!

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Leg 1: MacKenzie Gore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112) vs. Mets

The #3 overall pick in the 2017 draft is really shining with his new team ranking Top 15% in strikeout rate, Top 23% in whiff rate and Top 38% in chase rate through 7 starts! He’s pitching to a 3.65 ERA (3.69 xERA) with strong peripheral metrics. Betting him to eclipse the 6+ K’s mark is 6-1 (86%). That’s objectively impressive given 6 of the 7 games were tough matchups vs. teams in the Bottom 18 of strikeout rate vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP), and 3 of the 7 were Bottom 9. One of those games came vs. these Mets on April 26th, and Gore whiffed 10 — tying a career high.

Since that day (not including it), New York has the 5th lowest OBP and 2nd lowest walk rate vs. LHP. Walks can be Gore’s Achilles heel, but the Mets’ plate discipline has collapsed. That, plus the matchup history support this pick!

Leg 2: Spencer Strider 8+ K’s & Win vs. Blue Jays (+145)

Right-Handed Pitchers (RHP) are 5-3 (63%) to the “Over” vs. closing K prop lines vs. Toronto this month, and they’ll face their toughest test yet tonight. Strider’s in town, and he’s recorded no less than 9+ strikeouts in 6 of 7 starts on the campaign with a 42% strikeout rate, which is Top 1% in MLB. 7 of the 9 projected Jays hitters have zero matchup history vs. Strider. This gives an inherent advantage to an already dominant Braves pitcher.

Conversely, the Braves have terrific numbers vs. Toronto starter Chris Bassitt — a former divisional rival. He’s pitching to a 4.28 ERA this year with a new team; however, peripheral indicators are less stellar, suggesting negative regression might be imminent.

Look for Atlanta’s sizzling bats to pounce on a familiar foe and improve to 9-3 in their last 12 games.

Leg 3: Red Sox / Cardinals Over 8.5 Alt Line (-280)

Did you know betting the “Over” in Red Sox games is 25-12-1 this year? Factoring in odds… Betting the same amount every time has returned +28.9% ROI, hypothetically speaking. At Fenway Park, it’s 14-6 with +34.7% ROI.

Perhaps the trend isn't surprising given they’re scoring 5.68 runs per game (3rd best). Much of the team’s success is coming vs. RHP (2nd best wRC+ and OPS), which spells trouble for Adam Wainwright. The ageless wonder surrendered 4 runs on 8 hits in just 5 innings last week vs. a weaker Tigers lineup. I respect Wainwright, but Boston’s a much tougher opponent that’s crushed him in the past.

Looking at the Cardinals offense — they’re infamously bad right now but highly motivated to improve. Manager Oliver Marnol’s on the hot seat, and it’s nearing a boiling point. Luckily for them, tonight’s a softer matchup vs. James Paxton, who hasn’t pitched in the MLB since April 6, 2021. He’s a Lefty, and STL rank 6th in wRC+ vs. that split. Notably, they’ve only had 318 PA’s vs. LHP so far, which is 5th fewest in MLB. Perhaps a timely matchup vs. Paxton is just what the doctor ordered?

I fully expect a high scoring game but bought down to 8.5 in spirit of safety for the parlay!

The Slip

I got +529 for the 3-leg parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e., half normal bet size) to win 2.65 units!
Water it down. Juice it up. Play’ em straight. Your call! I’m rolling with this! Bet responsibly please and best of luck.

FMl betslip
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