@FastMoneyLabs’ NHL Betting Preview & Picks - 3/1

$FML went 2-1 on Monday night including an easy +210 cash!

He's got a full betting preview & three best bets for Tuesday's action below.

It’s a fresh month, and we’re staring at a packed 9-game hockey slate. Just what the doctor ordered. If that doesn’t get your blood flowing then then rejoice - because it’s Tuesday! 

I do not have a good explanation for this next stat - take it for whatever it’s worth to you - but for whatever reason, Tuesdays have been the 2nd highest scoring day in the NHL this year next to Mondays…

Looking across the slate, I like today’s matchups’ chances at sustaining the trend. As such, let’s use today’s column to attack a game that I’m confident will do its part.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Philadelphia Flyers (7pm ET)

If you’re not buying my ‘day-of-the-week’ narrative, then let me riddle you this: this next matchup I’m about to highlight has a rich history of finishing ‘Over’ on all days of the week - not just Tuesdays.

In their last 3 meetings, these teams combined for 26 goals:

  • October 2021: PHI 5, EDM 3
  • October 2019: EDM 6, PHI 3
  • February 2019: PHI 5, EDM 4 (OT)

That’s an average of 8.67 goals per game in EDM/PHI matchups since 2019.

In the Connor McDavid era (since 2015), these teams have gone head-to-head 10 times with exciting results:

  • EDM scored 4+ goals in 7 of the 10 matchups (including 3 of 4 played in Philadelphia).
  • PHI scored 4+ goals in 5 of the 10 matchups (including 2 of 4 played in Philadelphia).

Entering tonight, these teams have combined for 7+ goals in 5 of their last 8 meetings. If the 2021 version of the matchup was any indication (Philly won 5-3) - we should expect another high-flying matchup tonight.

As far as predicting the winner, it’s been a good strategy to back the home team in this matchup. The Flyers won 3 of the 4 games in played at home, whereas Edmonton took 4 of 6 played in Canada. Tonight, the series returns to the City of Brotherly Love after two straight in Oiler country.

Despite the trend, I’m hesitant to blindly back the home team here. Yes - Edmonton lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the losses were at the hands of much tougher opponents (MIN, TBL, CAR) than Philly. Before that, the Oilers had won 5 straight games and 10 of their last 13.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia is coming off a narrow 2-1 win vs. Washington but before that, they had lost 6 straight. On the season, they are just 9-18 (33%) against the moneyline in their home games.

$FML Verdict & Best Bet

While I didn’t personally back a side, I have a strong lean towards the Oilers. After facing a string of tough opponents, I feel tonight sizes up as a perfect get-right spot.

One factor leading me to be cautious about Edmonton relates to rest.

  • Tonight marks their 3rd road game in 4 nights - a daunting situation for most clubs.
  • Normally, I prefer to fade teams in this spot, so I looked into it, and the the results were interesting. I found the Oilers fare pretty well in this situation -- at least this year. In 8 prior occurrences (3rd game in 4 nights), Edmonton scored 3.5 goals per game — higher than their average in all other rest situations (which could be a function of small sample size, but still interesting). They’ve also allowed 3.5 goals per game.
  • Most teams have a losing record in this spot, but the Oilers have held their own by winning 4 of 8. For that reason, I can’t get myself to fade Edmonton, but I’m not too giddy to back them either considering how leaky their defense and goaltending has been on short rest.

Rather than back a side, I prefer to attack the Game Total market. The line is currently sitting at o/u 6.5 (+100) at time of writing. 

My preferred approach for this particular game is to buy down to the Key Number of 6 and back the ‘Over’ at what I feel is a reasonable price of -130. Doing so ensures we get our money back if they land exactly at 6 as they did twice in their last 10 meetings.

Hit rate comparison - last 10 PHI/EDM matchups

  • Over 6 is 5-3-2 (62.5%)
  • Over 6.5 is 5-5 (50%)

Game Prop Pick

caesars

PHI/EDM O6 (ALT LINE) @ -130

Player Prop Angles

Riding the hot hand and backing the NHL’s best player to contribute scoring (and shots) in what sizes up to be a fast-paced, high-scoring matchup tonight!

In 10 career games vs. Philadelphia, Connor McDavid:

  • Scored a goal in 6 of 10 (60%)
  • Recorded an assist in 8 of 10 (80%)
  • Tallied 2+ points in 6 of 10 (60%)

In the most recent matchup (October 2021), McDavid peppered Philly with 9 shots on goal. He also covered today’s shots on goal line in 5 of his last 6 games, including 3/3 on this road trip vs. tougher opponents (CAR, FLA, TBL).

Player Prop Pick

caesars

CONNOR MCDAVID O1.5 POINTS @ +105

Player Prop Pick

caesars

CONNOR MCDAVID O3.5 SHOTS ON GOAL @ -122

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