$FML's Best Bet for NHL Tuesday - 12/20

This prop is priced in-line with his season hit rate (63%); however at home, he’s cashing at a 73% clip. Tonight he gets a favorable matchup vs. a fatigued team playing it’s 2nd leg of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 nights. Columbus allow the 2nd most shots per game (35.4) in the league, of which 31.2% are flying off the sticks of defensemen (most in NHL). DeAngelo cleared this 1.5 line in 5 of 6 H2H meetings vs. the Jackets since 2020, including twice on the road this season. Now back home – his most favorable split – I’m backing Tony with confidence for Leg 1.

Sticking to the theme above… I’m buying Fiala’s home/road splits in a plus matchup. Since being acquired in the trade market last summer, Fiala ranks #2 on the Kings in shots on goal and #1 when they skate at home. He’s cleared this 2.5 line in 10 consecutive contests at Crypto.com Arena with an average of 4.1 SOG (+1.6 vs. line) on 6.4 attempts. Betting him to get 3+ on net is cashing at a 73% clip at home since joining the Kings vs. just 26% on the road. He’s attempting 38% more shots on home ice, which explains the disconnect. If you’re not sold yet, you should know the Ducks allow the most shots per game both overall (37.6) and to forwards (27.0). They’re also giving opponents the 6th most Power Play Opportunities (PPO) per game, and Fiala records 32.3% of his shots with the man advantage. Betting him to get 3+ on net vs. Anaheim is 10-2 since 2020. He eclipsed the 4+ mark in 7 of those 12 games. To close this parlay, we only need 3.

I risked a full unit at +148 (Caesars) and would take this combo down to +130!